Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth’s climate system and its related effects. Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming. Although the increase of near-surface atmospheric temperature is the measure of global warming often reported in the popular press, most of the additional energy stored in the climate system since 1970 has gone into the oceans. The rest has melted ice and warmed the continents and atmosphere.[a] Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over tens to thousands of years.
Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that scientists were more than 95% certain that global warming is mostly being caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Human-made carbon dioxide continues to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years. Currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere. The rest is absorbed by vegetation and the oceans. Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) for the highest emissions scenario. These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[b] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.
Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe. Anticipated effects include warming global temperature, rising sea levels, changing precipitation, and expansion of deserts in the subtropics. Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall; ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels. Because the climate system has a large “inertia” and CO2 will stay in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries, but will persist for tens of thousands of years.
Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to pre-industrial levels,[c] with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).
Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing. A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54% consider it “a very serious problem”. There are significant regional differences, with Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions) among the least concerned.
- 1 Observed temperature changes
- 2 Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)
- 3 Feedback
- 4 Climate models
- 5 Observed and expected environmental effects
- 6 Observed and expected effects on social systems
- 7 Possible responses to global warming
- 8 Discourse about global warming
- 9 Etymology
- 10 See also
- 11 Notes
- 12 Citations
- 13 References
- 14 Further reading
- 15 External links
Observed temperature changes
The global average (land and ocean) surface temperature shows a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets. Earth’s average surface temperature rose by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming almost doubled for the last half of that period (0.13±0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07±0.02 °C per decade).
The average temperature of the lower troposphere has increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.23 and 0.40 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.
The warming that is evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, as documented by many independent scientific groups. Examples include sea level rise, widespread melting of snow and land ice, increased heat content of the oceans, increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, e.g., the flowering of plants. The probability that these changes could have occurred by chance is virtually zero.
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. Since the beginning of industrialisation the temperature difference between the hemispheres has increased due to melting of sea ice and snow in the North. Average arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world in the past 100 years; however arctic temperatures are also highly variable. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. One climate commitment study concluded that if greenhouse gases were stabilized at year 2000 levels, surface temperatures would still increase by about one-half degree Celsius, and another found that if they were stabilized at 2005 levels surface warming could exceed a whole degree Celsius. Some of this surface warming will be driven by past natural forcings which are still seeking equilibrium in the climate system. One study using a highly simplified climate model indicates these past natural forcings may account for as much as 64% of the committed 2050 surface warming and their influence will fade with time compared to the human contribution.
Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long-term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in surface temperature from 2002 to 2009, which has been dubbed the global warming hiatus by the media and some scientists, is consistent with such an episode. 2015 updates to account for differing methods of measuring ocean surface temperature measurements show a positive trend over the recent decade.
15 of the top 16 warmest years have occurred since 2000. While record-breaking years can attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. So some climatologists have criticized the attention that the popular press gives to “warmest year” statistics; for example, Gavin Schmidt stated “the long-term trends or the expected sequence of records are far more important than whether any single year is a record or not.”
2015 was not only the warmest year on record, it broke the record by the largest margin by which the record has been broken. 2015 was the 39th consecutive year with above-average temperatures. Ocean oscillations like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect global average temperatures, for example, 1998 temperatures were significantly enhanced by strong El Niño conditions. 1998 remained the warmest year until 2005 and 2010 and the temperature of both of these years was enhanced by El Niño periods. The large margin by which 2015 is the warmest year is also attributed to another strong El Niño. However, 2014 was ENSO neutral. According to NOAA and NASA, 2015 had the warmest respective months on record for 10 out of the 12 months. The average temperature around the globe was 1.62˚F (0.90˚C) or 20% above the twentieth century average. In a first, December 2015 was also the first month to ever reach a temperature 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for the planet. As of July 2016, for the 15th consecutive month, the global land and ocean temperature departure from average was the highest since global temperature records began in 1880. This marks the longest such streak in NOAA’s 137 years of record keeping. In addition, NOAA reported that July of 2016 was the hottest month on record. 
Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)
The climate system can warm or cool in response to changes in external forcings. These are “external” to the climate system but not necessarily external to Earth. Examples of external forcings include changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., increased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth’s orbit around the Sun.
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in a planet’s atmosphere warm its lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824, discovered in 1860 by John Tyndall, was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, and was developed in the 1930s through 1960s by Guy Stewart Callendar.
On Earth, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases cause air temperature near the surface to be about 33 °C (59 °F) warmer than it would be in their absence.[d] Without the Earth’s atmosphere, the Earth’s average temperature would be well below the freezing temperature of water. The major greenhouse gases are water vapour, which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9%; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7%. Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. According to work published in 2007, the concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.
Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation. Another significant non-fuel source of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is the calcination of limestone for clinker production, a chemical process which releases CO2. Estimates of global CO2 emissions in 2011 from fossil fuel combustion, including cement production and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tonnes (9.5 ± 0.5 PgC), an increase of 54% above emissions in 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of the total emissions, oil 34%, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7%
In May 2013, it was reported that readings for CO2 taken at the world’s primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa surpassed 400 ppm. According to professor Brian Hoskins, this is likely the first time CO2 levels have been this high for about 4.5 million years. Monthly global CO2 concentrations exceeded 400 ppm in March 2015, probably for the first time in several million years. On 12 November 2015, NASA scientists reported that human-made carbon dioxide continues to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years: currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels is not absorbed by vegetation and the oceans and remains in the atmosphere.
Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. Attributions of emissions due to land-use change are subject to considerable uncertainty.:289
Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced. Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century. Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES “marker” scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm. This is 90–250% above the concentration in the year 1750.
The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone (e.g., the ozone layer) by chlorofluorocarbons. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.
Aerosols and soot
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth’s surface, was observed from 1961 until at least 1990. Solid and liquid particles known as aerosols, produced by volcanoes and human-made pollutants, are thought to be the main cause of this dimming. They exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion – CO2 and aerosols – have partially offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane. Radiative forcing due to aerosols is temporally limited due to the processes that remove aerosols from the atmosphere. Removal by clouds and precipitation gives tropospheric aerosols an atmospheric lifetime of only about a week, while stratospheric aerosols can remain for a few years. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in aerosols will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide. Black carbon is second only to carbon dioxide for its contribution to global warming.
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the Earth’s radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, a phenomenon known as the Twomey effect. This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect. Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of aerosols represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.
Soot may either cool or warm Earth’s climate system, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorbs solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds. When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The influences of atmospheric particles, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.
Since 1978, solar irradiance has been measured by satellites. These measurements indicate that the Sun’s radiative output has not increased since 1978, so the warming during the past 30 years cannot be attributed to an increase in solar energy reaching the Earth.
Climate models have been used to examine the role of the Sun in recent climate change. Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to simulate the observed 20th century changes in temperature when they include all of the most important external forcings, including human influences and natural forcings.
Another line of evidence against solar variations having caused recent climate change comes from looking at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth’s atmosphere have changed. Models and observations show that greenhouse warming results in warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) but cooling of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere). Depletion of the ozone layer by chemical refrigerants has also resulted in a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. If solar variations were responsible for observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and stratosphere would be expected.
Variations in Earth’s orbit
The tilt of the Earth’s axis and the shape of its orbit around the Sun vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and are a natural source of climate change, by changing the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar insolation.
During the last few thousand years, this phenomenon contributed to a slow cooling trend at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during summer, a trend that was reversed by greenhouse-gas-induced warming during the 20th century.
Variations in orbital cycles may initiate a new glacial period in the future, though the timing of this depends on greenhouse gas concentrations as well as the orbital forcing. A new glacial period is not expected within the next 50,000 years if atmospheric CO2 concentration remains above 300 ppm.
The climate system includes a range of feedbacks, which alter the response of the system to changes in external forcings. Positive feedbacks increase the response of the climate system to an initial forcing, while negative feedbacks reduce it.
There are a range of feedbacks in the climate system, including water vapour, changes in ice-albedo (snow and ice cover affect how much the Earth’s surface absorbs or reflects incoming sunlight), clouds, and changes in the Earth’s carbon cycle (e.g., the release of carbon from soil). The main negative feedback is the energy the Earth’s surface radiates into space as infrared radiation. According to the Stefan-Boltzmann law, if the absolute temperature (as measured in kelvin) doubles,[e] radiated energy increases by a factor of 16 (2 to the 4th power).
Feedbacks are an important factor in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Other factors being equal, a higher climate sensitivity means that more warming will occur for a given increase in greenhouse gas forcing. Uncertainty over the effect of feedbacks is a major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given forcing scenario. More research is needed to understand the role of clouds and carbon cycle feedbacks in climate projections.
The IPCC projections previously mentioned span the “likely” range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) for the selected emissions scenarios. However, the IPCC’s projections do not reflect the full range of uncertainty. The lower end of the “likely” range appears to be better constrained than the upper end.
A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system. Such models are based on scientific disciplines such as fluid dynamics and thermodynamics as well as physical processes such as radiative transfer. The models may be used to predict a range of variables such as local air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; ocean temperature, salt content, and circulation; ice cover on land and sea; the transfer of heat and moisture from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere; and chemical and biological processes, among others.
Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. Results from models can also vary due to different greenhouse gas inputs and the model’s climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty in IPCC’s 2007 projections is caused by (1) the use of multiple models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations, (2) the use of differing estimates of humanity’s future greenhouse gas emissions, (3) any additional emissions from climate feedbacks that were not included in the models IPCC used to prepare its report, i.e., greenhouse gas releases from permafrost.
The models do not assume the climate will warm due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Instead the models predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative transfer and other physical processes. Warming or cooling is thus a result, not an assumption, of the models.
Clouds and their effects are especially difficult to predict. Improving the models’ representation of clouds is therefore an important topic in current research. Another prominent research topic is expanding and improving representations of the carbon cycle.
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates. Climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate. Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted. Precipitation increased proportionally to atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than global climate models predict. Since 1990, sea level has also risen considerably faster than models predicted it would.
Observed and expected environmental effects
Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed to some of the observed changes, including sea level rise, changes in climate extremes (such as the number of warm and cold days), declines in Arctic sea ice extent, glacier retreat, and greening of the Sahara.
During the 21st century, glaciers and snow cover are projected to continue their widespread retreat. Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary. Recent projections suggest that Arctic summers could be ice-free (defined as ice extent less than 1 million square km) as early as 2025-2030.
“Detection” is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change. Detection does not imply attribution of the detected change to a particular cause. “Attribution” of causes of climate change is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence. Detection and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical, ecological and social systems.
Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.
Future changes in precipitation are expected to follow existing trends, with reduced precipitation over subtropical land areas, and increased precipitation at subpolar latitudes and some equatorial regions. Projections suggest a probable increase in the frequency and severity of some extreme weather events, such as heat waves.
A 2015 study published in Nature Climate Change, states:
|“||About 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence. For 2 °C of warming the fraction of precipitation extremes attributable to human influence rises to about 40%. Likewise, today about 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming. It is the most rare and extreme events for which the largest fraction is anthropogenic, and that contribution increases nonlinearly with further warming.||”|
Data analysis of extreme events from 1960 till 2010 suggests that droughts and heat waves appear simultaneously with increased frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased since 1980.
Sea level rise
The sea level rise since 1993 has been estimated to have been on average 2.6 mm and 2.9 mm per year ± 0.4 mm. Additionally, sea level rise has accelerated from 1995 to 2015. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects for a high emissions scenario, that global mean sea level could rise by 52–98 cm. The IPCC’s projections are conservative, and may underestimate future sea level rise. Other estimates suggest that for the same period, global mean sea level could rise by 0.2 to 2.0 m (0.7–6.6 ft), relative to mean sea level in 1992.
Widespread coastal flooding would be expected if several degrees of warming is sustained for millennia. For example, sustained global warming of more than 2 °C (relative to pre-industrial levels) could lead to eventual sea level rise of around 1 to 4 m due to thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of glaciers and small ice caps. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet could contribute an additional 4 to 7.5 m over many thousands of years. It has been estimated that we are already committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 metres for each degree of temperature rise within the next 2,000 years.
Warming beyond the 2 °C target would potentially lead to rates of sea-level rise dominated by ice loss from Antarctica. Continued CO2 emissions from fossil sources could cause additional tens of metres of sea level rise, over the next millennia and eventually ultimately eliminate the entire Antarctic ice sheet, causing about 58 metres of sea level rise.
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, as well as poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming. Future climate change is expected to affect particular ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs. It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.
Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to an increase in ocean acidity. Dissolved CO2 increases ocean acidity, measured by lower pH values. Between 1750 and 2000, surface-ocean pH has decreased by ≈0.1, from ≈8.2 to ≈8.1. Surface-ocean pH has probably not been below ≈8.1 during the past 2 million years. Projections suggest that surface-ocean pH could decrease by an additional 0.3–0.4 units by 2100. Future ocean acidification could threaten coral reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other natural resources of value to society.
Ocean deoxygenation is projected to increase hypoxia by 10%, and triple suboxic waters (oxygen concentrations 98% less than the mean surface concentrations), for each 1 °C of upper ocean warming.
On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of global warming will be determined primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is due to carbon dioxide’s very long lifetime in the atmosphere.
Stabilizing the global average temperature would require large reductions in CO2 emissions, as well as reductions in emissions of other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. Emissions of CO2 would need to be reduced by more than 80% relative to their peak level. Even if this were achieved, global average temperatures would remain close to their highest level for many centuries.
Long-term effects also include a response from the Earth’s crust, due to ice melting and deglaciation, in a process called post-glacial rebound, when land masses are no longer depressed by the weight of ice. This could lead to landslides and increased seismic and volcanic activities. Tsunamis could be generated by submarine landslides caused by warmer ocean water thawing ocean-floor permafrost or releasing gas hydrates. Some world regions, such as the French Alps, already show signs of an increase in landslide frequency.
Large-scale and abrupt impacts
Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes in natural and social systems. Examples include the possibility for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to slow- or shutdown, which in the instance of a shutdown would change weather in Europe and North America considerably, ocean acidification caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, and the long-term melting of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level rise.
Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e., over a short time period, and might also be irreversible. Examples of abrupt climate change are the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from permafrost, which would lead to amplified global warming, or the shutdown of thermohaline circulation. Scientific understanding of abrupt climate change is generally poor. The probability of abrupt change for some climate related feedbacks may be low. Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly, and warming that is sustained over longer time periods.
The effects of climate change on human systems, mostly due to warming or shifts in precipitation patterns, or both, have been detected worldwide. Production of wheat and maize globally has been impacted by climate change. While crop production has increased in some mid-latitude regions such as the UK and Northeast China, economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally. There has been a shift from cold- to heat-related mortality in some regions as a result of warming. Livelihoods of indigenous peoples of the Arctic have been altered by climate change, and there is emerging evidence of climate change impacts on livelihoods of indigenous peoples in other regions. Regional impacts of climate change are now observable at more locations than before, on all continents and across ocean regions.
The future social impacts of climate change will be uneven. Many risks are expected to increase with higher magnitudes of global warming. All regions are at risk of experiencing negative impacts. Low-latitude, less developed areas face the greatest risk. A study from 2015 concluded that economic growth (gross domestic product) of poorer countries is much more impaired with projected future climate warming, than previously thought.
Examples of impacts include:
- Food: Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative. Global warming of around 4.6 °C relative to pre-industrial levels could pose a large risk to global and regional food security.
- Health: Generally impacts will be more negative than positive. Impacts include: the effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life; and indirect effects, such as undernutrition brought on by crop failures.
In small islands and mega deltas, inundation as a result of sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements. This could lead to issues of homelessness in countries with low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, as well as statelessness for populations in countries such as the Maldives and Tuvalu.
Estimates based on the IPCC A1B emission scenario from additional CO2 and CH4 greenhouse gases released from permafrost, estimate associated impact damages by US$43 trillion.
Continued permafrost degradation will likely result in unstable infrastructure in Arctic regions, or Alaska before 2100. Thus, impacting roads, pipelines and buildings, as well as water distribution, and cause slope failures.
Possible responses to global warming
Mitigation of climate change are actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere. There is a large potential for future reductions in emissions by a combination of activities, including: energy conservation and increased energy efficiency; the use of low-carbon energy technologies, such as renewable energy, nuclear energy, and carbon capture and storage; and enhancing carbon sinks through, for example, reforestation and preventing deforestation. A 2015 report by Citibank concluded that transitioning to a low carbon economy would yield positive return on investments.
Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system are inconsistent with limiting global warming at below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels. Pledges made as part of the Cancún agreements are broadly consistent with having a likely chance (66 to 100% probability) of limiting global warming (in the 21st century) at below 3 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.
In limiting warming at below 2 °C, more stringent emission reductions in the near-term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030. Many integrated models are unable to meet the 2 °C target if pessimistic assumptions are made about the availability of mitigation technologies.
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of climate change, or spontaneous, i.e., without government intervention. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.
A concept related to adaptation is adaptive capacity, which is the ability of a system (human, natural or managed) to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences. Unmitigated climate change (i.e., future climate change without efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions) would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.
Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.
Climate engineering (sometimes called geoengineering or climate intervention) is the deliberate modification of the climate. It has been investigated as a possible response to global warming, e.g. by NASA and the Royal Society. Techniques under research fall generally into the categories solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, although various other schemes have been suggested. A study from 2014 investigated the most common climate engineering methods and concluded they are either ineffective or have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change.
Discourse about global warming
Most countries in the world are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent dangerous human interference of the climate system. As stated in the Convention, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion. The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen.
During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations):4 pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to “[take] the lead” in reducing their emissions. This was justified on the basis that: the developed world’s emissions had contributed most to the cumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.:290
This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention,:290 which entered into legal effect in 2005. In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expired in 2012. United States President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that “it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centres such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy.”:5
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord. Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010):9 aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C. The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.
There is continuing discussion through published peer-reviewed scientific papers, which are assessed by scientists working in the relevant fields taking part in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The scientific consensus as of 2013 stated in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is that it “is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century”. A 2008 report by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences stated that most scientists by then agreed that observed warming in recent decades was primarily caused by human activities increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2005 the Royal Society stated that while the overwhelming majority of scientists were in agreement on the main points, some individuals and organizations opposed to the consensus on urgent action needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have tried to undermine the science and work of the IPCC. National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.
In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view.
Discussion by the public and in popular media
The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, substantially more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature, regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is completely or partially an artefact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be.
From 1990 to 1997, right-wing conservative think tanks in the United States mobilized to challenge the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the scientific evidence, argued that global warming will have benefits, and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good. Some people dispute aspects of climate change science. Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls. On the other hand, some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years, or even called for policies to reduce global warming. Global oil companies have begun to acknowledge climate change exists and is caused by human activities and the burning of fossil fuels.
Surveys of public opinion
The world public, or at least people in economically advanced regions, became broadly aware of the global warming problem in the late 1980s. Polling groups began to track opinions on the subject, at first mainly in the United States. The longest consistent polling, by Gallup in the US, found relatively small deviations of 10% or so from 1998 to 2015 in opinion on the seriousness of global warming, but with increasing polarization between those concerned and those unconcerned.
The first major worldwide poll, conducted by Gallup in 2008-2009 in 127 countries, found that some 62% of people worldwide said they knew about global warming. In the advanced countries of North America, Europe and Japan, 90% or more knew about it (97% in the U.S., 99% in Japan); in less developed countries, especially in Africa, fewer than a quarter knew about it, although many had noticed local weather changes. Among those who knew about global warming, there was a wide variation between nations in belief that the warming was a result of human activities.
By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there was a substantial decrease since 2007–08 in the number of Americans and Europeans who viewed global warming as a serious threat. In the US, just a little over half the population (53%) now viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; this was 10 points below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern: 73% said global warming is a serious threat to their families. This global poll also found that people are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the US where nearly half (47%) of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.
A March–May 2013 survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press polled 39 countries about global threats. According to 54% of those questioned, global warming featured top of the perceived global threats. In a January 2013 survey, Pew found that 69% of Americans say there is solid evidence that the Earth’s average temperature has got warmer over the past few decades, up six points since November 2011 and 12 points since 2009.
A 2010 survey of 14 industrialized countries found that skepticism about the danger of global warming was highest in Australia, Norway, New Zealand and the United States, in that order, correlating positively with per capita emissions of carbon dioxide.
In the 1950s, research suggested increasing temperatures, and a 1952 newspaper reported “climate change”. This phrase next appeared in a November 1957 report in The Hammond Times which described Roger Revelle‘s research into the effects of increasing human-caused CO2 emissions on the greenhouse effect, “a large scale global warming, with radical climate changes may result”. Both phrases were only used occasionally until 1975, when Wallace Smith Broecker published a scientific paper on the topic; “Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?” The phrase began to come into common use, and in 1976 Mikhail Budyko‘s statement that “a global warming up has started” was widely reported. Other studies, such as a 1971 MIT report, referred to the human impact as “inadvertent climate modification”, but an influential 1979 National Academy of Sciences study headed by Jule Charney followed Broecker in using global warming for rising surface temperatures, while describing the wider effects of increased CO2 as climate change.
In 1986 and November 1987, NASA climate scientist James Hansen gave testimony to Congress on global warming. There were increasing heatwaves and drought problems in the summer of 1988, and when Hansen testified in the Senate on 23 June he sparked worldwide interest. He said: “global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming.” Public attention increased over the summer, and global warming became the dominant popular term, commonly used both by the press and in public discourse.
In a 2008 NASA article on usage, Erik M. Conway defined Global warming as “the increase in Earth’s average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases”, while Climate change was “a long-term change in the Earth’s climate, or of a region on Earth.” As effects such as changing patterns of rainfall and rising sea levels would probably have more impact than temperatures alone, he considered global climate change a more scientifically accurate term, and like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NASA website would emphasize this wider context.
- Climate change and agriculture
- Effects of global warming on oceans
- Environmental impact of the coal industry
- Geologic temperature record
- Global cooling
- Glossary of climate change
- Greenhouse gas emissions accounting
- History of climate change science
- Holocene extinction
- Index of climate change articles
- Scientific opinion on climate change
- Scientific journals use “global warming” to describe an increasing global average temperature just at earth’s surface, and most of these authorities further limit “global warming” to such increases caused by human activities or increasing greenhouse gases.
- The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People’s Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization.
- Earth has already experienced almost 1/2 of the 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) described in the Cancún Agreement. In the last 100 years, Earth’s average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.
- The greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).
- A rise in temperature from 10 °C to 20 °C is not a doubling of absolute temperature; a rise from (273 + 10) K = 283 K to (273 + 20) K = 293 K is an increase of (293 − 283)/283 = 3.5 %.
- 16 January 2015: NASA GISS: NASA GISS: NASA, NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record, in: Research News. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA. Retrieved 20 February 2015
- Gillis, Justin (28 November 2015). “Short Answers to Hard Questions About Climate Change”. The New York Times. Retrieved 29 November 2015.
- Hartmann, D. L.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.; Rusticucci, M. (2013). “2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface” (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). p. 198.
Evidence for a warming world comes from multiple independent climate indicators, from high up in the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. They include changes in surface, atmospheric and oceanic temperatures; glaciers; snow cover; sea ice; sea level and atmospheric water vapour. Scientists from all over the world have independently verified this evidence many times.
- “Myth vs Facts….”. EPA (US). 2013.The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is ‘unequivocal’. This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g., rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).
- Borenstein, Seth (29 November 2015). “Earth is a wilder, warmer place since last climate deal made”. Retrieved 29 November 2015.
- Rhein, M.; Rintoul, S.R. (2013). “3: Observations: Ocean” (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). p. 257.
Ocean warming dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth’s energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total. Melting ice (including Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) and warming of the continents and atmosphere account for the remainder of the change in energy.
- IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System, p. 2, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.”
- “CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers” (PDF). IPCC. Retrieved 1 November 2015.
The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely likely: 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than likely 0–<50% and extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate.
- “CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers” (PDF). IPCC. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together
- America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0.
(p1) … there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.
- Buis, Alan; Ramsayer, Kate; Rasmussen, Carol (12 November 2015). “A Breathing Planet, Off Balance”. NASA. Retrieved 13 November 2015.
- Staff (12 November 2015). “Audio (66:01) – NASA News Conference – Carbon & Climate Telecon”. NASA. Retrieved 12 November 2015.
- St. Fleur, Nicholas (10 November 2015). “Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Levels Hit Record, Report Says”. The New York Times. Retrieved 11 November 2015.
- Ritter, Karl (9 November 2015). “UK: In 1st, global temps average could be 1 degree C higher”. AP News. Retrieved 11 November 2015.
- Stocker et al., Technical Summary, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013.
- “Joint Science Academies’ Statement” (PDF). Retrieved 6 January 2014.
- Kirby, Alex (17 May 2001). “Science academies back Kyoto”. BBC News. Retrieved 27 July 2011.
- DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M. (2007). Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. The MIT Press. p. 68. ISBN 978-0-262-54193-0.
- Parry, M.L.; et al., “Technical summary”, Box TS.6. The main projected impacts for regions, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007, pp. 59–63
- Solomon et al., Technical Summary, Section TS.5.3: Regional-Scale Projections, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- Lu, Jian; Vechhi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas (2007). “Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming” (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (6): L06805. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3406805L. doi:10.1029/2006GL028443.
- On snowfall:
- Christopher Joyce (15 February 2010). “Get This: Warming Planet Can Mean More Snow”. NPR.
- “Global warming means more snowstorms: scientists”. 1 March 2011.
- “Does record snowfall disprove global warming?”. 9 July 2010. Retrieved 14 December 2014.
- Battisti, David; Naylor, Rosamund L. (2009). “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat”. Science. 323 (5911): 240–4. doi:10.1126/science.1164363. PMID 19131626. Retrieved 13 April 2012.
- US NRC 2012, p. 26
- Peter U. Clark et al.: Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change 6, 2016, 360-369, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2923
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011). “Status of Ratification of the Convention”. UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC.. Most countries in the world are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has adopted the 2 °C limit. As of 25 November 2011, there are 195 parties (194 states and 1 regional economic integration organization (the European Union)) to the UNFCCC.
- “Article 2”. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner, excerpt from the founding international treaty that took force on 21 March 1994.
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011). “Conference of the Parties – Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4” (PDF). UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC: 3. “(…) deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels”
- America’s Climate Choices. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2011. p. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5.
The average temperature of the Earth’s surface increased by about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) over the past 100 years, with about 1.0 °F (0.6 °C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades.
- Sutter, John D.; Berlinger, Joshua (12 December 2015). “Final draft of climate deal formally accepted in Paris”. CNN. Cable News Network, Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved 12 December 2015.
- Vaughan, A. (12 December 2015). “Paris climate deal: key points at a glance”. The Guardian. London and Manchester, UK. Retrieved 12 December 2015.. Archived 1 August 2016.
- Stokes, Bruce; Wike, Richard; Carle, Jill (5 November 2015). “Global Concern about Climate Change, Broad Support for Limiting Emissions: U.S., China Less Worried; Partisan Divides in Key Countries”. Pew Research Center. Retrieved 18 June 2016.
- Brown, Dwayne; Cabbage, Michael; McCarthy, Leslie; Norton, Karen (20 January 2016). “NASA, NOAA Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015”. NASA. Retrieved 21 January 2016.
- Rhein, M., et al. (June 7, 2013): Box 3.1, in: Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean (final draft accepted by IPCC Working Group I), pp.11-12 (pp.14-15 of PDF chapter), in: IPCC AR5 WG1 2013
- IPCC (November 11, 2013): D.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, in: Summary for Policymakers (finalized version), p.15, in: IPCC AR5 WG1 2013
- “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5)” (PDF). WGI AR5. IPCC AR5. 2013. p. 5.
- “Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis”. IPCC AR4. 2007.
- Jansen et al., Ch. 6, Palaeoclimate, Section 188.8.131.52: What Do Reconstructions Based on Palaeoclimatic Proxies Show?, pp. 466–478, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- Kennedy, J.J.; et al. (2010). “How do we know the world has warmed? in: 2. Global Climate, in: State of the Climate in 2009”. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 91 (7): 26.
- Kennedy, C. (10 July 2012). “ClimateWatch Magazine >> State of the Climate: 2011 Global Sea Level”. NOAA Climate Services Portal.
- “Summary for Policymakers”. Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
- “Summary for Policymakers”. B. Current knowledge about observed impacts of climate change on the natural and human environment., in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
- Rosenzweig, C.; et al. “Ch 1: Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems”. Sec 184.108.40.206 Changes in phenology., in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007, p. 99
- Trenberth et al., Chap 3, Observations: Atmospheric Surface and Climate Change, Executive Summary, p. 237, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- Rowan T. Sutton; Buwen Dong; Jonathan M. Gregory (2007). “Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations”. Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (2): L02701. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3402701S. doi:10.1029/2006GL028164. Retrieved 19 September 2007.
- Feulner, Georg; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Levermann, Anders; Volkwardt, Silvia (March 2013). “On the Origin of the Surface Air Temperature Difference Between the Hemispheres in Earth’s Present-Day Climate”. Journal of Climate. 26: 130325101629005. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00636.1. Retrieved 25 April 2013.
- TS.3.1.2 Spatial Distribution of Changes in Temperature, Circulation and Related Variables – AR4 WGI Technical Summary
- Ehhalt et al., Chapter 4: Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases, Section 220.127.116.11: Carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen (H2), p. 256, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
- Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.; Collins, William D.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Hu, Aixue; Buja, Lawrence E.; Strand, Warren G.; Teng, Haiyan (18 March 2005). “How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise” (PDF). Science. 307 (5716): 1769–1772. Bibcode:2005Sci…307.1769M. doi:10.1126/science.1106663. PMID 15774757. Retrieved 11 February 2007.
- T. M. L. Wigley (2005). “The Climate Change Commitment” (PDF). doi:10.1126/science.1103934.
Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1C. The CE warming commitment is 2 to 6C by the year 2400.” (…) “A breakdown of the natural and anthropogenic components of the CC commitment, together with uncertainties arising from ocean mixing (Kz) uncertainties, is given in table S1. Past natural forcing (inclusion of which is the default case here) has a marked effect. The natural forcing component is surprisingly large, 64% of the total commitment in 2050, reducing to 52% by 2400.
- England, Matthew (February 2014). “Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus”. Nature Climate Change. 4: 222–227. Bibcode:2014NatCC…4..222E. doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.
- Knight, J.; Kenney, J.J.; Folland, C.; Harris, G.; Jones, G.S.; Palmer, M.; Parker, D.; Scaife, A.; Stott, P. (August 2009). “Do Global Temperature Trends Over the Last Decade Falsify Climate Predictions? [in “State of the Climate in 2008″]” (PDF). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90 (8): S75–S79. Retrieved 13 August 2011.
- Global temperature slowdown – not an end to climate change. UK Met Office. Retrieved 20 March 2011.
- Gavin Schmidt (4 June 2015). “NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus'”.
- NOAA (4 June 2015). “Science publishes new NOAA analysis: Data show no recent slowdown in global warming”.
- Miller, Brandon (20 January 2016). “2015 is warmest year on record, NOAA and NASA say”. CNN. Retrieved 27 March 2016.
- Schmidt, Gavin (22 January 2015). “Thoughts on 2014 and ongoing temperature trends”. RealClimate. Retrieved 4 September 2015.
- “Climate change: 2015 ‘shattered’ global temperature record by wide margin”. BBC. 20 January 2016.
- “Global Analysis- July 2016” NOAA, Retrieved on 24 August 2016.
- Group (28 November 2004). “Forcings (filed under: Glossary)”. RealClimate.
- Pew Center on Global Climate Change / Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (September 2006). “Science Brief 1: The Causes of Global Climate Change” (PDF). Arlington, Virginia, USA: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions., p.2
- US NRC 2012, p. 9
- Hegerl et al., Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Section 18.104.22.168: The Influence of Other Anthropogenic and Natural Forcings, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007, pp. 690–691. “Recent estimates indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the second half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings.” p. 690
- Tyndall, John (1861). “On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connection of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction” (PDF). Philosophical Magazine. 4. 22: 169–94, 273–85. Retrieved 8 May 2013.
- Weart, Spencer (2008). “The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect”. The Discovery of Global Warming. American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
- The Callendar Effect: the life and work of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964) Amer Meteor Soc., Boston. ISBN 978-1-878220-76-9
- Le Treut; et al. “Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science”. FAQ 1.1., p. 97, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007: “To emit 240 W m–2, a surface would have to have a temperature of around −19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth’s surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C). Instead, the necessary −19 °C is found at an altitude about 5 km above the surface.”
- Blue, Jessica. “What is the Natural Greenhouse Effect?”. National Geographic. Retrieved 1 Jan 2015.
- Kiehl, J.T.; Trenberth, K.E. (1997). “Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget” (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 78 (2): 197–208. Bibcode:1997BAMS…78..197K. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1520-0477. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 June 2008. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
- Schmidt, Gavin (6 April 2005). “Water vapour: feedback or forcing?”. RealClimate. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
- Russell, Randy (16 May 2007). “The Greenhouse Effect & Greenhouse Gases”. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Windows to the Universe. Retrieved 27 December 2009.
- EPA (2007). “Recent Climate Change: Atmosphere Changes”. Climate Change Science Program. United States Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
- Spahni, Renato; Jérôme Chappellaz; Thomas F. Stocker; Laetitia Loulergue; Gregor Hausammann; Kenji Kawamura; Jacqueline Flückiger; Jakob Schwander; Dominique Raynaud; Valérie Masson-Delmotte; Jean Jouzel (November 2005). “Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores”. Science. 310 (5752): 1317–1321. Bibcode:2005Sci…310.1317S. doi:10.1126/science.1120132. PMID 16311333.
- Siegenthaler, Urs; et al. (November 2005). “Stable Carbon Cycle–Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene” (PDF). Science. 310 (5752): 1313–1317. Bibcode:2005Sci…310.1313S. doi:10.1126/science.1120130. PMID 16311332. Retrieved 25 August 2010.
- Petit, J. R.; et al. (3 June 1999). “Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica” (PDF). Nature. 399 (6735): 429–436. Bibcode:1999Natur.399..429P. doi:10.1038/20859. Retrieved 27 December 2009.
- Lüthi, D.; Le Floch, M.; Bereiter, B.; Blunier, T.; Barnola, J. M.; Siegenthaler, U.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Fischer, H.; Kawamura, K.; Stocker, T. F. (2008). “High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present”. Nature. 453 (7193): 379–382. Bibcode:2008Natur.453..379L. doi:10.1038/nature06949. PMID 18480821.
- Pearson, PN; Palmer, MR (2000). “Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years”. Nature. 406 (6797): 695–699. doi:10.1038/35021000. PMID 10963587.
- IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, Concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases …, p. 7, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
- IPCC (2007) AR4. Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change, section 22.214.171.124. https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch7s7-4-5.html
- Le Quéré, C.;; Andres, R.J.; Boden, T.; Conway, T.; Houghton, R.A.; House, J.I.; Marland, G.; Peters, G.P.; van der Werf, G.; Ahlström, A.; Andrew, R.M.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J.G.; Ciais, P.; Doney, S.C.; Enright, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Huntingford, C.; Jain, A.K.; Jourdain, C.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R.F.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Levis, S.; Levy, P.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M.R.; Schwinger, J.; Sitch, S.; Stocker, B.D.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N. (2 December 2012). “The global carbon budget 1959–2011”. Earth System Science Data Discussions. 5 (2): 1107–1157. Bibcode:2012ESSDD…5.1107L. doi:10.5194/essdd-5-1107-2012.
- “Carbon dioxide passes symbolic mark”. BBC. 10 May 2013. Retrieved 27 May 2013.
- Pilita Clark (10 May 2013). “CO2 at highest level for millions of years”. Financial Times. Retrieved 27 May 2013. (registration required (help)).
- “Climate scientists discuss future of their field”. 7 July 2015.
- Rogner, H.-H., et al., Chap. 1, Introduction, Section 126.96.36.199: Intensities, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
- NRC (2008). “Understanding and Responding to Climate Change” (PDF). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, US National Academy of Sciences. p. 2. Retrieved 9 November 2010.
- World Bank (2010). World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5. ISBN 978-0-8213-7987-5. Archived from the original on 5 March 2010. Retrieved 6 April 2010.
- Banuri et al., Chapter 3: Equity and Social Considerations, Section 3.3.3: Patterns of greenhouse gas emissions, and Box 3.1, pp. 92–93 in IPCC SAR WG3 1996.
- Liverman, D.M. (2008). “Conventions of climate change: constructions of danger and the dispossession of the atmosphere” (PDF). Journal of Historical Geography. 35 (2): 279–296. doi:10.1016/j.jhg.2008.08.008. Retrieved 10 May 2011.
- Fisher et al., Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context, Section 3.1: Emissions scenarios: Issues related to mitigation in the long term context in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
- Morita, Chapter 2: Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications, Section 188.8.131.52: Emissions and Other Results of the SRES Scenarios, in IPCC TAR WG3 2001.
- Rogner et al., Ch. 1: Introduction, Figure 1.7, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
- IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, Introduction, paragraph 6, in IPCC TAR WG3 2001.
- Prentence et al., Chapter 3: The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Executive Summary, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
- Newell, P.J., 2000: Climate for change: non-state actors and the global politics of greenhouse. Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-63250-1.
- Talk of the Nation. “Americans Fail the Climate Quiz”. NPR. Retrieved 27 December 2011.
- Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Lacis, Andrew; Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto; Aguilar, Elliot (2006). “Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th-century climate change”. Journal of Geophysical Research. 111 (D8): D08302. Bibcode:2006JGRD..11108302S. doi:10.1029/2005JD006348.
- Solomon, S; D. Qin; M. Manning; Z. Chen; M. Marquis; K.B. Averyt; M. Tignor; H.L. Miller, eds. (2007). “184.108.40.206 Surface Radiation”. Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1.
- Hansen, J; Sato, M; Ruedy, R; Lacis, A; Oinas, V (2000). “Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario”. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 97 (18): 9875–80. Bibcode:2000PNAS…97.9875H. doi:10.1073/pnas.170278997. PMC . PMID 10944197.
- Ramanathan, V.; Carmichael, G. (2008). “Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon”. Nature Geoscience. 1 (4): 221–227. Bibcode:2008NatGe…1..221R. doi:10.1038/ngeo156.
- V. Ramanathan and G. Carmichael, supra note 1, at 221 (“. . . emissions of black carbon are the second strongest contribution to current global warming, after carbon dioxide emissions.”) Numerous scientists also calculate that black carbon may be second only to CO2 in its contribution to climate change, including Tami C. Bond & Haolin Sun, Can Reducing Black Carbon Emissions Counteract Global Warming, ENVIRON. SCI. TECHN. (2005), at 5921 (“BC is the second or third largest individual warming agent, following carbon dioxide and methane.”); and J. Hansen, A Brighter Future, 53 CLIMATE CHANGE 435 (2002), available at http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2002/2002_Hansen_1.pdf (calculating the climate forcing of BC at 1.0±0.5 W/m2).
- Twomey, S. (1977). “Influence of pollution on shortwave albedo of clouds”. J. Atmos. Sci. 34 (7): 1149–1152. Bibcode:1977JAtS…34.1149T. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1520-0469.
- Albrecht, B. (1989). “Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness”. Science. 245 (4923): 1227–1239. Bibcode:1989Sci…245.1227A. doi:10.1126/science.245.4923.1227. PMID 17747885.
- IPCC, “Aerosols, their Direct and Indirect Effects“, pp. 291–292 in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
- Ramanathan, V.; Chung, C.; Kim, D.; Bettge, T.; Buja, L.; Kiehl, J. T.; Washington, W. M.; Fu, Q.; Sikka, D. R.; Wild, M. (2005). “Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle” (Full free text). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 102 (15): 5326–5333. Bibcode:2005PNAS..102.5326R. doi:10.1073/pnas.0500656102. PMC . PMID 15749818.
- Ramanathan, V.; et al. (2008). “Report Summary” (PDF). Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia. United Nations Environment Programme.
- Ramanathan, V.; et al. (2008). “Part III: Global and Future Implications” (PDF). Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia. United Nations Environment Programme.
- IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change, Figure SPM.2, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- US Environmental Protection Agency (2009). “3.2.2 Solar Irradiance”. Volume 3: Attribution of Observed Climate Change. Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. EPA’s Response to Public Comments. US Environmental Protection Agency. Archived from the original on 16 June 2011. Retrieved June 23, 2011.
- US NRC 2008, p. 6
- Hegerl, et al., Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Frequently Asked Question 9.2: Can the Warming of the 20th century be Explained by Natural Variability?, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- Simmon, R.; D. Herring (November 2009). “Notes for slide number 7, titled “Satellite evidence also suggests greenhouse gas warming,” in presentation, “Human contributions to global climate change””. Presentation library on the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Services website. Archived from the original on 3 July 2011. Retrieved 23 June 2011.
- Hegerl et al., Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Frequently Asked Question 9.2: Can the Warming of the 20th century be Explained by Natural Variability?, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- Randel, William J.; Shine, Keith P.; Austin, John; et al. (2009). “An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends”. Journal of Geophysical Research. 114 (D2): D02107. Bibcode:2009JGRD..11402107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD010421.
- USGCRP 2009, p. 20
- R.S. Bradley; K.R. Briffa; J. Cole; M.K. Hughes; T.J. Osborn (2003). “The climate of the last millennium”. In K.D. Alverson; R.S. Bradley; T.F. Pederson. Paleoclimate, global change and the future. Springer. pp. 105–141. ISBN 3-540-42402-4.
- Kaufman, D. S.; Schneider, D. P.; McKay, N. P.; Ammann, C. M.; Bradley, R. S.; Briffa, K. R.; Miller, G. H.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Vinther, B. M.; Abbott, M.; Axford, M.; Bird, Y.; Birks, B.; Bjune, H. J. B.; Briner, A. E.; Cook, J.; Chipman, T.; Francus, M.; Gajewski, P.; Geirsdottir, K.; Hu, A.; Kutchko, F. S.; Lamoureux, B.; Loso, S.; MacDonald, M.; Peros, G.; Porinchu, M.; Schiff, D.; Seppa, C.; Seppa, H.; Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members (2009). “Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling”. Science. 325 (5945): 1236–1239. Bibcode:2009Sci…325.1236K. doi:10.1126/science.1173983. PMID 19729653.
- “Arctic Warming Overtakes 2,000 Years of Natural Cooling”. UCAR. 3 September 2009. Retrieved 8 June 2011.
- Bello, David (4 September 2009). “Global Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling”. Scientific American. Retrieved 8 June 2011.
- Mann, M. E.; Zhang, Z.; Hughes, M. K.; Bradley, R. S.; Miller, S. K.; Rutherford, S.; Ni, F. (2008). “Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 105 (36): 13252–7. Bibcode:2008PNAS..10513252M. doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105. PMC . PMID 18765811.
- Berger, A. (2002). “CLIMATE: An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?”. Science. 297 (5585): 1287–8. doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.
- Masson-Delmotte V.M.; et al. (2013). “Information from paleoclimate archives”. In Stocker T.F. et al. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. pp. 383–464. ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0.
- Jackson, R.; A. Jenkins (17 November 2012). “Vital signs of the planet: global climate change and global warming: uncertainties”. Earth Science Communications Team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology.
- Riebeek, H. (16 June 2011). “The Carbon Cycle: Feature Articles: Effects of Changing the Carbon Cycle”. Earth Observatory, part of the EOS Project Science Office located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
- US National Research Council (2003). “Ch. 1 Introduction”. Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks. Washington, D.C., USA: National Academies Press., p.19
- Lindsey, R. (14 January 2009). “Earth’s Energy Budget (p.4), in: Climate and Earth’s Energy Budget: Feature Articles”. Earth Observatory, part of the EOS Project Science Office, located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
- US National Research Council (2006). “Ch. 1 Introduction to Technical Chapters”. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years. Washington, D.C., USA: National Academies Press., pp.26-27
- AMS Council (20 August 2012). “2012 American Meteorological Society (AMS) Information Statement on Climate Change”. Boston, Massachusetts, USA: AMS.
- Meehl, G.A.; et al. “Ch 10: Global Climate Projections”. Sec 10.5.4.6 Synthesis of Projected Global Temperature at Year 2100]., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
- NOAA (January 2007). “Patterns of greenhouse warming” (PDF). GFDL Climate Modeling Research Highlights. Princeton, New Jersey, USA: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). 1 (6)., revision 2 February 2007, 8:50.08 AM.
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) (9 October 2012). “NOAA GFDL Climate Research Highlights Image Gallery: Patterns of Greenhouse Warming”. NOAA GFDL.
- IPCC, Glossary A-D: “Climate Model”, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
- Karl, TR; et al., eds. (2009). “Global Climate Change”. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0.
- KEVIN SCHAEFER; TINGJUN ZHANG; LORI BRUHWILER; ANDREW P. BARRETT (2011). “Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming”. Tellus Series B. 63 (2): 165–180. Bibcode:2011TellB..63..165S. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x.
- Hansen, James (2000). “Climatic Change: Understanding Global Warming”. In Robert Lanza. One World: The Health & Survival of the Human Species in the 21st century. Health Press (New Mexico). pp. 173–190. ISBN 0-929173-33-3. Retrieved 18 August 2007.
- Stocker et al., Chapter 7: Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks, Section 7.2.2: Cloud Processes and Feedbacks, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
- Torn, Margaret; Harte, John (2006). “Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming” (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (10): L10703. Bibcode:2006GeoRL..3310703T. doi:10.1029/2005GL025540. Retrieved 4 March 2007.
- Harte, John; Saleska, Scott; Shih, Tiffany (2006). “Shifts in plant dominance control carbon-cycle responses to experimental warming and widespread drought”. Environmental Research Letters. 1 (1): 014001. Bibcode:2006ERL…..1a4001H. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/1/1/014001. Retrieved 2 May 2007.
- Scheffer, Marten; Brovkin, Victor; Cox, Peter (2006). “Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change” (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (10): L10702. Bibcode:2006GeoRL..3310702S. doi:10.1029/2005gl025044. Retrieved 4 May 2007.
- Randall et al., Chapter 8, Climate Models and Their Evaluation, Sec. FAQ 8.1 in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- IPCC, Technical Summary, p. 54, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001.
- Stroeve, J.; et al. (2007). “Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast”. Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9): L09501. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3409501S. doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.
- Wentz,FJ; et al. (2007). “How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring?”. Science. 317 (5835): 233–5. Bibcode:2007Sci…317..233W. doi:10.1126/science.1140746. PMID 17540863.
- Liepert, Beate G.; Previdi, Michael (2009). “Do Models and Observations Disagree on the Rainfall Response to Global Warming?”. Journal of Climate. 22 (11): 3156–3166. Bibcode:2009JCli…22.3156L. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2472.1.
Recently analyzed satellite-derived global precipitation datasets from 1987 to 2006 indicate an increase in global-mean precipitation of 1.1%–1.4% decade−1. This trend corresponds to a hydrological sensitivity (HS) of 7% K−1 of global warming, which is close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate expected from the increase in saturation water vapor pressure with temperature. Analysis of two available global ocean evaporation datasets confirms this observed intensification of the atmospheric water cycle. The observed hydrological sensitivity over the past 20-yr period is higher by a factor of 5 than the average HS of 1.4% K−1 simulated in state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.
- Rahmstorf, S.; Cazenave, A.; Church, J. A.; Hansen, J. E.; Keeling, R. F.; Parker, D. E.; Somerville, R. C. J. (4 May 2007). “Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections”. Science. 316 (5825): 709–709. Bibcode:2007Sci…316..709R. doi:10.1126/science.1136843. PMID 17272686.
- 4. Global Mean Sea Level Rise Scenarios, in: Main Report, in Parris & others 2012, p. 12
- Executive Summary, in Parris & others 2012, p. 1
- Hegerl, G.C.; et al. “Ch 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change”. Executive Summary., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
- “Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change?”. National Geographic. Retrieved 12 June 2010.
- Meehl, G.A.; et al. “Ch 10: Global Climate Projections”. Box 10.1: Future Abrupt Climate Change, ‘Climate Surprises’, and Irreversible Changes: Glaciers and ice caps., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007, p. 776
- Meehl, G.A.; et al. “Ch 10: Global Climate Projections”. Sec 10.3.3.2 Changes in Snow Cover and Frozen Ground., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007, pp. 770, 772
- Meehl, G.A.; et al. “Ch 10: Global Climate Projections”. Sec 10.3.3.1 Changes in Sea Ice Cover., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007, p. 770
- Wang, M.; Overland, J. E. (2009). “A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (7). Bibcode:2009GeoRL..3607502W. doi:10.1029/2009GL037820. Retrieved 2 May 2011.
- Met Office. “Arctic sea ice 2012”. Exeter, UK: Met Office.
- IPCC, Glossary A-D: “Detection and attribution”, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007. See also Hegerl et al., Section 9.1.2: What are Climate Change Detection and Attribution?, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- Rosenzweig et al., Chapter 1: Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems Section 1.2 Methods of detection and attribution of observed changes, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007 .
- IPCC, Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers, Section 3: Projected climate change and its impacts, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
- NOAA (February 2007). “Will the wet get wetter and the dry drier?” (PDF). GFDL Climate Modeling Research Highlights. Princeton, New Jersey, USA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). 1 (5)., p.1. Revision 15 October 2008, 4:47:16 PM.
- “D. Future Climate Extremes, Impacts, and Disaster Losses, in: Summary for policymakers”. MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND DISASTERS TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION., in IPCC SREX 2012, pp. 9–13
- Justin Gillis (27 April 2015). “New Study Links Weather Extremes to Global Warming”. The New York Times. Retrieved 27 April 2015.
“The bottom line is that things are not that complicated,” Dr. Knutti said. “You make the world a degree or two warmer, and there will be more hot days. There will be more moisture in the atmosphere, so that must come down somewhere.”
- E. M. Fischer; R. Knutti (27 April 2015). “Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes” (online). Nature Climate Change. 5: 560–564. Bibcode:2015NatCC…5..560F. doi:10.1038/nclimate2617. Retrieved 27 April 2015.
We show that at the present-day warming of 0.85 °C about 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence. … Likewise, today about 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming.
- “UCI study finds dramatic increase in concurrent droughts, heat waves”. UCI. 2015.
- “Indian Monsoons Are Becoming More Extreme”. Scientific American. 2014.
- Christopher S. Watson; Neil J. White; John A. Church; Matt A. King; Reed J. Burgette; Benoit Legresy (11 May 2015). “Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era”. Nature Climate Change. Bibcode:2015NatCC…5..565W. doi:10.1038/nclimate2635.
- Churchs, John; Clark, Peter. “Chapter 13: Sea Level Change – Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment” (PDF). IPCC Working Group I. Retrieved 21 January 2015.
- PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE, pp.243-244, in: Ch. 7. Sea Level Rise and the Coastal Environment, in National Research Council 2010
- BOX SYN-1: SUSTAINED WARMING COULD LEAD TO SEVERE IMPACTS, p.5, in: Synopsis, in National Research Council 2011
- Anders Levermann; Peter U. Clark; Ben Marzeion; Glenn A. Milne; David Pollard; Valentina Radic; Alexander Robinson (13 June 2013). “The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming”. PNAS. 110: 13745–13750. Bibcode:2013PNAS..11013745L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1219414110.
- Ricarda Winkelmann; Anders Levermann; Andy Ridgwell; Ken Caldeira (11 September 2015). “Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet”. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500589.
- IPCC, Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers, Section 1: Observed changes in climate and their effects, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
- Fischlin, et al., Chapter 4: Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods and Services, Executive Summary, p. 213, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Executive summary not present in on-line text; see pdf.
- Schneider et al., Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change, Section 19.3.4: Ecosystems and biodiversity, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007.
- Ocean Acidification, in: Ch. 2. Our Changing Climate, in NCADAC 2013, pp. 69–70
- Introduction, in Zeebe 2012, p. 142
- Ocean acidification, in: Executive summary, in Good & others 2010, p. 14
- Deutsch; et al. (2011). “Climate-Forced Variability of Ocean Hypoxia” (PDF). Science. 333: 336–339. Bibcode:2011Sci…333..336D. doi:10.1126/science.1202422.
- Summary, pp.14-19, in National Research Council 2011
- FAQ 12.3, in: Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013, pp.88-89 (pp.90-91 of PDF chapter)
- BOX 2.1: STABILIZATION AND NON-CO2 GREENHO– USE GASES (p.65), in: Chapter 2: Emissions, Concentrations, and Related Factors, in National Research Council 2011
- Bill McGuire. “Climate forcing of geological and geomorphological hazards”. Philosophical Transactions A. Royal Society. 368: 2311–2315. Bibcode:2010RSPTA.368.2311M. doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0077.
- Jérôme Lopez Saez; Christophe Corona; Markus Stoffel; Frédéric Berger. “Climate change increases frequency of shallow spring landslides in the French Alps”. Geology. 41: 619–622. doi:10.1130/G34098.1.
- Smith, J.B.; et al. “Ch. 19. Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis”. Sec 19.6. Extreme and Irreversible Effects., in IPCC TAR WG2 2001
- Smith, J. B.; Schneider, S. H.; Oppenheimer, M.; Yohe, G. W.; Hare, W.; Mastrandrea, M. D.; Patwardhan, A.; Burton, I.; Corfee-Morlot, J.; Magadza, C. H. D.; Füssel, H.-M.; Pittock, A. B.; Rahman, A.; Suarez, A.; van Ypersele, J.-P. (17 March 2009). “Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘reasons for concern'”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 106 (11): 4133–7. Bibcode:2009PNAS..106.4133S. doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106. PMC . PMID 19251662.
- Clark, P.U.; et al. (December 2008). “Executive Summary”. Abrupt Climate Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Reston, Virginia, USA: U.S. Geological Survey., pp. 1–7. Report website
- “Siberian permafrost thaw warning sparked by cave data”. BBC. 22 February 2013. Retrieved 24 February 2013.
- US National Research Council (2010). “Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Report in Brief”. Washington, D.C., USA: National Academies Press., p.3. PDF of Report
- IPCC. “Summary for Policymakers”. Sec. 2.6. The Potential for Large-Scale and Possibly Irreversible Impacts Poses Risks that have yet to be Reliably Quantified., in IPCC TAR WG2 2001
- Cramer, W., et al., Executive summary, in: Chapter 18: Detection and attribution of observed impacts (archived 8 July 2014), pp.3-4, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- FAQ 7 and 8, in: Volume-wide Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) (archived 8 July 2014), pp.2-3, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- Oppenheimer, M., et al., Section 19.6.3: Updating Reasons for Concern, in: Chapter 19: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities (archived 8 July 2014), pp.39-46, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- Field, C., et al., B-3: Regional Risks and Potential for Adaptation, in: Technical Summary (archived 8 July 2014), pp.27-30, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- Oppenheimer, M., et al., Section 19.6.3: Updating Reasons for Concern, in: Chapter 19: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities (archived 8 July 2014), pp.42-43, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- Dana Nuccitelli (26 January 2015). “Climate change could impact the poor much more than previously thought”. The Guardian.
- Chris Mooney (22 October 2014). “There’s a surprisingly strong link between climate change and violence”. The Washington Post.
- Porter, J.R., et al., Executive summary, in: Chapter 7: Food security and food production systems (archived 8 July 2014), p.3, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- Reference temperature period converted from late-20th century to pre-industrial times (approximated in the source as 1850-1900).
- Smith, K.R., et al., FAQ 11.2, in: Chapter 11: Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits (archived 8 July 2014), p.37, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- Costello, Anthony; Abbas, Mustafa; Allen, Adriana; Ball, Sarah; Bell, Sarah; Bellamy, Richard; Friel, Sharon; Groce, Nora; Johnson, Anne; Kett, Maria; Lee, Maria; Levy, Caren; Maslin, Mark; McCoy, David; McGuire, Bill; Montgomery, Hugh; Napier, David; Pagel, Christina; Patel, Jinesh; de Oliveira, Jose Antonio Puppim; Redclift, Nanneke; Rees, Hannah; Rogger, Daniel; Scott, Joanne; Stephenson, Judith; Twigg, John; Wolff, Jonathan; Patterson, Craig (May 2009). “Managing the health effects of climate change”. The Lancet. 373 (9676): 1693–1733. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60935-1.
- Watts, Nick; Adger, W Neil; Agnolucci, Paolo; Blackstock, Jason; Byass, Peter; Cai, Wenjia; Chaytor, Sarah; Colbourn, Tim; Collins, Mat; Cooper, Adam; Cox, Peter M; Depledge, Joanna; Drummond, Paul; Ekins, Paul; Galaz, Victor; Grace, Delia; Graham, Hilary; Grubb, Michael; Haines, Andy; Hamilton, Ian; Hunter, Alasdair; Jiang, Xujia; Li, Moxuan; Kelman, Ilan; Liang, Lu; Lott, Melissa; Lowe, Robert; Luo, Yong; Mace, Georgina; Maslin, Mark; Nilsson, Maria; Oreszczyn, Tadj; Pye, Steve; Quinn, Tara; Svensdotter, My; Venevsky, Sergey; Warner, Koko; Xu, Bing; Yang, Jun; Yin, Yongyuan; Yu, Chaoqing; Zhang, Qiang; Gong, Peng; Montgomery, Hugh; Costello, Anthony (November 2015). “Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health”. The Lancet. 386 (10006): 1861–1914. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60854-6. Retrieved 4 January 2016.
- Smith, K.R., et al., Section 11.4: Direct Impacts of Climate and Weather on Health, in: Chapter 11: Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits (archived 8 July 2014), pp.10-13, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- Smith, K.R., et al., Section 11.6.1. Nutrition, in: Chapter 11: Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits (archived 8 July 2014), pp.10-13, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014
- IPCC AR4 SYR 2007. 3.3.3 Especially affected systems, sectors and regions. Synthesis report.
- Mimura, N.; et al. (2007). “Executive summary”. In Parry, M.L. et al. Chapter 16: Small Islands. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK: Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 0521880106. Retrieved 15 September 2011.
- “Climate change and the risk of statelessness” (PDF). May 2011. Retrieved 13 April 2012.
- Chris Hope; Kevin Schaefer (2015). “Economic impacts of carbon dioxide and methane released from thawing permafrost”. Nature. 6: 56–59. Bibcode:2016NatCC…6…56H. doi:10.1038/nclimate2807.
- “North Slope permafrost thawing sooner than expected”. University of Alaska Fairbanks. 2015.
- PBL Netherlands Environment Agency (June 15, 2012). “Figure 6.14, in: Chapter 6: The energy and climate challenge”. In van Vuuren, D.; M. Kok. Roads from Rio+20 (PDF). ISBN 978-90-78645-98-6., p.177, Report no: 500062001. Report website.
- Mitigation, in USGCRP 2015
- IPCC, Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers, Section 4: Adaptation and mitigation options, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
- Edenhofer, O., et al., Table TS.3, in: Technical summary (archived 30 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, p. 68
- “Citi report: slowing global warming would save tens of trillions of dollars”. The Guardian. 2015.
- Clarke, L., et al., Executive summary, in: Chapter 6: Assessing Transformation Pathways (archived 30 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, p. 418
- SPM4.1: Long-term mitigation pathways, in: Summary for Policymakers (archived 27 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, pp. 10–13
- Edenhofer, O., et al., TS.3.1.2: Short- and long-term requirements of mitigation pathways, in: Technical summary (archived 30 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, pp. 55–56
- Edenhofer, O., et al., TS.3.1.3: Costs, investments and burden sharing, in: Technical summary (archived 30 December 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014, p. 58
- Smit et al., Chapter 18: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity, Section 18.2.3: Adaptation Types and Forms, in IPCC TAR WG2 2001.
- “Appendix I. Glossary”. Adaptive capacity., in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
- “Synthesis report”. Sec 6.3 Responses to climate change: Robust findings]., in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007
- “New Report Provides Authoritative Assessment of National, Regional Impacts of Global Climate Change” (Press release). U.S. Global Change Research Program. 16 June 2009. Retrieved 14 January 2016.
- “Workshop on managing solar radiation” (PDF). NASA. April 2007. Retrieved 23 May 2009.
- “Stop emitting CO2 or geoengineering could be our only hope” (Press release). The Royal Society. 28 August 2009. Retrieved 14 June 2011.
- P. Keller, David; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas (January 2014). “Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario”. Nature. 5: 3304. Bibcode:2014NatCo…5E3304K. doi:10.1038/ncomms4304. Retrieved 31 March 2014.
We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change.
- Quoted in IPCC SAR SYR 1996, “Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change”, paragraph 4.1, p. 8 (pdf p. 18.)
- Granger Morgan, M. (Lead Author), H. Dowlatabadi, M. Henrion, D. Keith, R. Lempert, S. McBride, M. Small and T. Wilbanks (Contributing Authors) (2009). “Non-Technical Summary: BOX NT.1 Summary of Climate Change Basics”. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (PDF). Washington, D.C., USA.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. p. 11. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
- UNFCCC (n.d.). “Essential Background”. UNFCCC website. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
- UNFCCC (n.d.). “Full text of the Convention, Article 2”. UNFCCC website. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
- Rogner et al., Chapter 1: Introduction, Executive summary, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
- Raupach, R.; Marland, G.; Ciais, P.; Le Quere, C.; Canadell, G.; Klepper, G.; Field, B. (Jun 2007). “Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions” (Free full text). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 104 (24): 10288–10293. Bibcode:2007PNAS..10410288R. doi:10.1073/pnas.0700609104. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC . PMID 17519334.
- Dessai, S. (2001). “The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?” (PDF). Tyndall Centre Working Paper 12. Tyndall Centre website. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
- Grubb, M. (July–September 2003). “The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol” (PDF). World Economics. 4 (3): 144–145. Retrieved 25 March 2010.
- UNFCCC (n.d.). “Kyoto Protocol”. UNFCCC website. Retrieved 21 May 2011.
- Müller, Benito (February 2010). Copenhagen 2009: Failure or final wake-up call for our leaders? EV 49 (PDF). Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. p. i. ISBN 978-1-907555-04-6. Retrieved 18 May 2010.
- Rudd, Kevin (25 May 2015). “Paris Can’t Be Another Copenhagen”. The New York Times. Retrieved 26 May 2015.
- United Nations Environment Programme (November 2010). “Technical summary”. The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C? A preliminary assessment (advance copy) (PDF). UNEP website. Retrieved 11 May 2011. This publication is also available in e-book format
- UNFCCC (30 March 2010). “Decision 2/CP. 15 Copenhagen Accord. In: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009. Addendum. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its fifteenth session” (PDF). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. p. 5. Retrieved 17 May 2010.
- “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention” (PDF). PRESIDENCIA DE LA REPÚBLICA, MÉXICO. 11 December 2010. p. 2. Retrieved 12 January 2011.
- IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers”, Detection and Attribution of Climate Change,
«It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century» (page 15) and «In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: (…) extremely likely: 95–100%» (page 2)., in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013.
- Royal Society (13 April 2005). “Letter from The Royal Society: A GUIDE TO FACTS AND FICTIONS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE: Misleading arguments: Many scientists do not think that climate change is a problem. Some scientists have signed petitions stating that climate change is not a problem. … There are some individuals and organisations, some of which are funded by the US oil industry, that seek to undermine the science of climate change and the work of the IPCC. They appear motivated in their arguments by opposition to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, which seek urgent action to tackle climate change through a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.”. Economic Affairs – Written Evidence. The Economics of Climate Change, the Second Report of the 2005–2006 session, produced by the UK Parliament House of Lords Economics Affairs Select Committee. UK Parliament website. Retrieved 9 July 2011. This document is also available in PDF format
- Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil), Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Académie des Sciences (France), Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany), Indian National Science Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academy of Science of South Africa, Royal Society (United Kingdom), National Academy of Sciences (United States of America) (May 2009). “G8+5 Academies’ joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future” (PDF). US National Academies website. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
- John Cook; et al. (13 April 2016). “Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming”. Environmental Research Letters. 11 (4). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002. Retrieved 21 July 2016.
- Julie Brigham-Grette; et al. (September 2006). “Petroleum Geologists’ Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate” (PDF). Eos. 87 (36): 364. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008. Retrieved 23 January 2007.
The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.
- Boykoff, M.; Boykoff, J. (July 2004). “Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press”. Global Environmental Change Part A. 14 (2): 125–136. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001.
- Oreskes, Naomi; Conway, Erik. Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (first ed.). Bloomsbury Press. ISBN 978-1-59691-610-4.
- Aaron M. McCright and Riley E. Dunlap, “Challenging Global Warming as a Social Problem: An Analysis of the Conservative Movement’s Counter-Claims”, Social Problems, November 2000, Vol. 47 Issue 4, pp 499–522 in JSTOR
- Weart, S. (July 2009). “The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980). Section: After 1988”. American Institute of Physics website. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
- Begley, Sharon (13 August 2007). “The Truth About Denial”. Newsweek. Retrieved 13 August 2007.
- Adams, David (20 September 2006). “Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial”. The Guardian. London. Retrieved 9 August 2007.
- “Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics”. MSNBC. 12 January 2007. Retrieved 2 May 2007.
- Sandell, Clayton (3 January 2007). “Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming”. ABC. Retrieved 27 April 2007.
- “Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics”. USA Today. Reuters. 18 May 2007. Retrieved 21 January 2010.
- “Global Warming Resolutions at U.S. Oil Companies Bring Policy Commitments from Leaders, and Record High Votes at Laggards” (Press release). Ceres. 13 May 2004. Retrieved 4 March 2010.
- “Oil Company Positions on the Reality and Risk of Climate Change”. Environmental Studies. University of Oshkosh – Wisconsin. Retrieved 27 March 2016.
- Weart, S. (February 2015). “The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980). Section: after 1988”. American Institute of Physics website. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
- “Environment”. Gallup. 2015. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
- Pelham, Brett (2009). “Awareness, Opinions about Global Warming Vary Worldwide”. Gallup. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
- Pugliese, Anita (20 April 2011). “Fewer Americans, Europeans View Global Warming as a Threat”. Gallup. Retrieved 22 April 2011.
- Ray, Julie; Anita Pugliese (22 April 2011). “Worldwide, Blame for Climate Change Falls on Humans”. Gallup.Com. Retrieved 3 May 2011.
People nearly everywhere, including majorities in developed Asia and Latin America, are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities rather than natural causes. The U.S. is the exception, with nearly half (47%) – and the largest percentage in the world – attributing global warming to natural causes.
- “Climate Change and Financial Instability Seen as Top Global Threats”. Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.
- Climate Change: Key Data Points from Pew Research | Pew Research Center
- Tranter, Bruce; Booth, Kate (July 2015). “Scepticism in a Changing Climate: A Cross-national Study”. Global Environmental Change. 33: 54–164. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.05.003.
- Weart, Spencer R. (February 2014). “The Discovery of Global Warming; The Public and Climate Change: Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956-1969)”. American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 12 May 2015., and footnote 27
- Erik Conway. “What’s in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change”, NASA, 5 December 2008
- Weart, Spencer R. (February 2014). “The Discovery of Global Warming; The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988”. American Institute of Physics. Retrieved 12 May 2015.
- U.S. Senate, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, “Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, part 2” 100th Cong., 1st sess., 23 June 1988, p. 44.
- Good, P.; et al. (2010), An updated review of developments in climate science research since IPCC AR4. A report by the AVOID consortium (PDF), London, UK: Committee on Climate Change, p. 14. Report website.
- IAP (June 2009), Interacademy Panel (IAP) Member Academies Statement on Ocean Acidification, Secretariat: TWAS (the Academy of Sciences for the Developing World), Trieste, Italy.
- IEA (2009). World Energy Outlook 2009 (PDF). Paris, France: International Energy Agency (IEA). ISBN 978-92-64-06130-9.
- IPCC AR4 SYR (2007). Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R.K; Reisinger, A., eds. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. ISBN 92-9169-122-4.
- IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007). Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; Miller, H.L., eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1. (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7)
- IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007). Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; Hanson, C.E., eds. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4)
- IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007). Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; Meyer, L.A., eds. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4. (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1)
- IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013), Stocker, T.F.; et al., eds., Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group 1 (WG1) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), Cambridge University Press. Climate Change 2013 Working Group 1 website.
- IPCC AR5 WG2 A (2014), Field, C.B.; et al., eds., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (GSA). Contribution of Working Group II (WG2) to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press. Archived 25 June 2014.
- IPCC AR5 WG3 (2014), Edenhofer, O.; et al., eds., Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III (WG3) to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, archived from the original on 27 November 2014. Also available at mitigation2014.org.
- IPCC SAR SYR (1996). “Climate Change 1995: A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. pdf. The “Full Report”, consisting of “The IPCC Second Assessment Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change” and the Summaries for Policymakers of the three Working Groups.
- IPCC SAR WG3 (1996). Bruce, J.P.; Lee, H.; Haites, E.F., eds. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-56051-9. (pb: 0-521-56854-4) pdf.
- IPCC SREX (2012). Field, C.B. et al., eds. “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)”. Cambridge University Press. . Summary for Policymakers Summary for Policymakers.
- IPCC TAR WG1 (2001). Houghton, J.T.; Ding, Y.; Griggs, D.J.; Noguer, M.; van der Linden, P.J.; Dai, X.; Maskell, K.; Johnson, C.A., eds. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80767-0. (pb: 0-521-01495-6)
- IPCC TAR WG2 (2001). McCarthy, J. J.; Canziani, O. F.; Leary, N. A.; Dokken, D. J.; White, K. S., eds. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80768-9. (pb: 0-521-01500-6)
- IPCC TAR WG3 (2001). Metz, B.; Davidson, O.; Swart, R.; Pan, J., eds. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80769-7. (pb: 0-521-01502-2)
- This article incorporates public domain material from the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) document: NCADAC (11 January 2013), Federal Advisory Committee Draft Climate Assessment. A report by the National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC), Washington, D.C., USA
- USGCRP (2015), Glossary, Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), retrieved 20 January 2014. Archived url.
- National Research Council (2011), Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia, Washington, D.C., USA: National Academies Press, archived from the original on 27 March 2014
- National Research Council (2010). America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change;. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0.
- Parris, A.; et al. (6 December 2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (PDF), NOAA Climate Program Office. Report website.
- UNEP (2010), UNEP Emerging Issues: Environmental Consequences of Ocean Acidification: A Threat to Food Security (PDF), Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Report summary.
- This article incorporates public domain material from the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) document: USGCRP (2009). Karl, T.R.; Melillo. J.; Peterson, T.; Hassol, S.J., eds. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0.. Public-domain status of this report can be found on p.4 of PDF
- US NRC (2008). “Understanding and responding to climate change: Highlights of National Academies Reports, 2008 edition, produced by the US National Research Council (US NRC)”. Washington, D.C., USA: National Academy of Sciences.
- US NRC (2012). “Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices”. US National Research Council (US NRC). Also available as PDF
- Zeebe, R.E. (May 2012), “History of Seawater Carbonate Chemistry, Atmospheric CO2, and Ocean Acidification” (PDF), Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 40, pp. 141–165, Bibcode:2012AREPS..40..141Z, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105521.
- Association of British Insurers (June 2005). Financial Risks of Climate Change (PDF).
- Ammann, Caspar; et al. (2007). “Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model” (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 104 (10): 3713–3718. Bibcode:2007PNAS..104.3713A. doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. PMC . PMID 17360418.
Simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism
- Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP (17 November 2005). “Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions” (abstract). Nature. 438 (7066): 303–309. Bibcode:2005Natur.438..303B. doi:10.1038/nature04141. PMID 16292301.
- Behrenfeld, MJ; O’malley, RT; Siegel, DA; et al. (7 December 2006). “Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity” (PDF). Nature. 444 (7120): 752–755. Bibcode:2006Natur.444..752B. doi:10.1038/nature05317. PMID 17151666.
- Choi, Onelack; Fisher, Ann (May 2005). “The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S”. Climate Change. 58 (1–2): 149–170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609.
- Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Meier, Mark F. (2005). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot (PDF). Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145.
- Emanuel, KA (4 August 2005). “Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years” (PDF). Nature. 436 (7051): 686–688. Bibcode:2005Natur.436..686E. doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221.
- James E. Hansen; Larissa Nazarenko; Reto Ruedy; Makiko Sato; Josh Willis; Anthony Del Genio; Dorothy Koch; Andrew Lacis; Ken Lo; Surabi Menon; Tica Novakov; Judith Perlwitz; Gary Russell; Gavin A. Schmidt; Nicholas Tausnev (3 June 2005). “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” (PDF). Science. 308 (5727): 1431–1435. Bibcode:2005Sci…308.1431H. doi:10.1126/science.1110252. PMID 15860591.
- Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P. (21 February 2003). “Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters”. Science. 299 (5610): 1214–1217. Bibcode:2003Sci…299.1214H. doi:10.1126/science.1079601. PMID 12595688.
- Hirsch, Tim (11 January 2006). “Plants revealed as methane source”. BBC.
- Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. (November 1993). “A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992”. Journal of Geophysical Research. 98 (A11): 18,895–18,906. Bibcode:1993JGR….9818895H. doi:10.1029/93JA01944.
- IPCC TAR SYR (2001). Watson, R. T.; the Core Writing Team, eds. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80770-0. (pb: 0-521-01507-3)
- Jamet, S.; J. Corfee-Morlot (7 April 2009). “Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change: A Literature Review”. OECD Economics Department Working Papers. OECD (691). doi:10.1787/224864018517.. Paper at IDEAS.
- Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). “Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth’s Climate: The Greenhouse Catastrophe” (PDF). Biophysics. 46 (6).
- Kenneth, James P. (14 February 2003). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. American Geophysical Union.
- Keppler, Frank; et al. (18 January 2006). “Global Warming – The Blame Is not with the Plants”. Max Planck Society.
- Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (December 2002). “The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun’s total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate”. Geophysical Research Letters. 29 (24): 2224. Bibcode:2002GeoRL..29x..77L. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880.
- Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda (26 July 2006). Environmental issues: essential primary sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1-4144-0625-8.
- McKibben, Bill (2011). The Global Warming Reader. OR Books. ISBN 978-1-935928-36-2.
- Muscheler, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, I (28 July 2005). “Climate: How unusual is today’s solar activity?” (PDF). Nature. 436 (7012): 1084–1087. Bibcode:2005Natur.436E…3M. doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429.
- Oerlemans, J. (29 April 2005). “Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records” (PDF). Science. 308 (5722): 675–677. Bibcode:2005Sci…308..675O. doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388.
- Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M (February 2005). “Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe” (abstract). Nature Reviews Microbiology. 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090. PMID 15685226.
- Revkin, Andrew C (5 November 2005). “Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice”. The New York Times.
- Royal Society (2005). “Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change”. Retrieved 19 April 2009.
- Roulstone, Ian; Norbury, John (2013). Invisible in the Storm: the role of mathematics in understanding weather. Princeton University Press. (see Chapter 8)
- Ruddiman, William F. (15 December 2005). Earth’s Climate Past and Future. New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.
- Ruddiman, William F. (1 August 2005). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.
- Schelling, Thomas C. (2002). “Greenhouse Effect”. In David R. Henderson (ed.). Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (1st ed.). Library of Economics and Liberty. OCLC 317650570, 50016270, 163149563
- Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, M; Beer, J (23 October 2004). “Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years” (PDF). Nature. 431 (7012): 1084–1087. Bibcode:2004Natur.431.1084S. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145.
- Solanki, Sami K.; et al. (28 July 2005). “Climate: How unusual is today’s solar activity? (Reply)” (PDF). Nature. 436 (7050): E4–E5. Bibcode:2005Natur.436E…4S. doi:10.1038/nature04046.
- Sowers, Todd (10 February 2006). “Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable”. Science. 311 (5762): 838–840. Bibcode:2006Sci…311..838S. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923.
- Svensmark, Henrik; et al. (8 February 2007). “Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions”. Proceedings of the Royal Society A. FirstCite Early Online Publishing. 463 (2078): 385–396. Bibcode:2007RSPSA.463..385S. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773.(online version requires registration)
- Walter, KM; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Chapin, F. S., 3rd (7 September 2006). “Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming”. Nature. 443 (7107): 71–75. Bibcode:2006Natur.443…71W. doi:10.1038/nature05040. PMID 16957728.
- Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N. R. (20 May 2005). “Modeling the sun’s magnetic field and irradiance since 1713” (PDF). Astrophysical Journal. 625 (1): 522–538. Bibcode:2005ApJ…625..522W. doi:10.1086/429689.
Find more about
at Wikipedia’s sister projects
|Definitions from Wiktionary|
|Media from Commons|
|News from Wikinews|
|Quotations from Wikiquote|
|Texts from Wikisource|
|Textbooks from Wikibooks|
|Learning resources from Wikiversity|
|Wikiversity hosts a testbank of quizzes to assess students’ understanding of this article|
|Library resources about
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – Global change research
- NOAA State of the Climate Report – U.S. and global monthly state of the climate reports
- Climate Change at the National Academies – repository for reports
- Nature Reports Climate Change – free-access web resource
- Met Office: Climate change – UK National Weather Service
- Educational Global Climate Modelling (EdGCM) – research-quality climate change simulator
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison – develops and releases standardized models such as CMIP3 (AR4) and CMIP5 (AR5)
- NASA: Climate change: How do we know?
- What Is Global Warming? – National Geographic
- Global Climate Change Indicators – NOAA
- NOAA Climate Services – NOAA
- Skeptical Science: Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism
- Global Warming Art, a collection of figures and images
- Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions – NOAA
- Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions – UCAR
- Global Warming: Center for Global Studies at the University of Illinois
- Global Climate Change: NASA’s Eyes on the Earth – NASA, JPL, Caltech
- OurWorld 2.0 – United Nations University
- Center for Climate and Energy Solutions – business and politics
- Climate change – EAA-PHEV Wiki – electric vehicles fuelled with electricity from wind or solar power will reduce greenhouse gas pollution from the transportation sector
- Climate Change Indicators in the United States – report by United States Environmental Protection Agency, 80 pp.
- The World Bank – Climate Change – A 4 Degree Warmer World – We must and can avoid it
- A world with this much CO²: lessons from 4 million years ago
- Global Sea Level Rise Map
- International Disaster Database
- Paris Climate Conference